Minnetonka, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

106
FXUS63 KMPX 281748
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1248 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers continue today with a few isolated strikes
  of lightning possible.

- Warming trend starts on Thursday peaking on Monday with high
  temperatures up near 90 possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025

This morning showers have continues to move north into Minnesota
and western Wisconsin from Iowa related to the circulation
around the upper low moving into Minnesota today. The dry air
that was a limiting factor during the day is less of a concern
overnight as lower temperatures have increased low level
saturation. Still not a abnormal amount of moisture with NAEFS
precipitable water values right near average (it is not until
early next week that they are above average). This will be keep
our precipitation amounts low. For example yesterday say 0.11"
at MSP Airport which is only just right around the daily normal
of 0.12". The broad ascent with this upper low will continue
through the day today. During the afternoon and into the early
evening some MU CAPE of 200 to 500 J/kg is expected and could
allow for some isolated thunderstorms. With limited instability
nothing strong or severe is expected and this is reflected well
within the region wide general thunder from SPC.

Precipitation chances come to an end Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning as we get on to the western side of the upper
low as it tracks farther to the east. This will bring an end to
our broad forcing and therefore the rain chances. Thursday and
Friday will be carried more by the surface high pressure. So
clearing skies and increasing temperatures expected. Forecast
highs are in the 70s on Thursday and into the lower 80s on
Friday. Temperatures more so maintain Saturday as a quick
shortwave passes through, but with limited moisture PoPs have
been kept low. Sunday into Monday will see the return on the
warming trend with temperatures peaking near 90 on Monday. This
will be thanks to a ridge building in and increasing southerly
flow and therefore WAA.

As is common in summer, which by meteorological standards it
will be early next week, hot weather is often followed by
thunderstorms. So as expected, our next period for a good
chances at convection will start on Tuesday and stretch into
much of the middle part of next week. Still a very broad signal
in the broader ensemble systems as for what days will provide
the best chances right now. This is reflected in the NBM PoPs
over this period with very broad PoPs. As we get closer the
area where the storms are expected will get smaller and more
confident. Right now can`t say much more than increased chances
for thunderstorms the middle of next week after a hot start to
the week on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Scattered showers will continue today with an isolated
thunderstorm or two in western MN this afternoon. Conditions
should remain VFR through the period, but some brief reductions
in vsby are possible in heavier showers. Showers taper off
this evening as drier air settles in. Winds will be light and
variable tonight but increase from the N/NW after tomorrow.
Chance for scattered showers again Thursday afternoon.


KMSP...Confidence of thunder is too low to include mention, but
a rumble cannot fully be ruled out. Showers to clear again
overnight, with small chance for redevelopment again in Thursday
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S/SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...PV